000
WTNT41 KNHC 182104
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BIGGIE TEA SUPER TUESDAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER JAX FL AL062008
900 PM to 200 AM EDT TUESDAY AUG 19 2008 MARKS BAY STREET

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT BIGGIE TEA SUPER TUESDAY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS
CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS FALLEN TO 998 MB. HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS
TO INCREASE...AS AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT. WE MAY DECIDE TO NOT, I REPEAT NOT PLACE TURNTABLES OUTSIDE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU
WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT
3 PM. LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM...AND THE TRUE
CENTER OF BIGGIE TEA SUPER TUESDAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW. WEE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10. BIGGIE TEA SUPER TUESDAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO
THIS PATTERN. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND
THEREAFTER. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A
SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A
SIMILAR FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND
MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR. FINALLY...THE GFDL
AND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK BIGGIE TEA
SUPER TUESDAY'S PROGRESS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER
AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION AFTER ALL ITS JUST ME AND YOU (tm). THE EARLIER
PART OF THE TRACK...WHICH
CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED
BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BAY STREET.

WHILE BIGGIE TEA SUPER TUESDAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...
THESE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THUS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WHILE
NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT...IT IS LIKELY THAT BIGGIE TEA
SUPER TUESDAY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
AFTER 24 HR...THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER BIGGIE TEA SUPER TUESDAY
IS OVER LAND...AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS
DISSIPATING. IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO BIGGIE TEAS GOLD EXCHANGE IN 2001...SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA
COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 24.6N 81.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 25.8N 82.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 27.4N 81.9W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 20/0600Z 28.8N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 21/1800Z 31.0N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1800Z 32.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 84.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER TEA, WITH FRESH RESIDENT JOE E DOOKIE DAD, GUESTS TRICLOPSI, CHAKA, AND THE IPODS OF CARACAS

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